¤ Using the futures market to predict pandemics ¤

southboca · Active Poster Joined: 13 Mar 2007 Posts: 100

I think this is one of the coolest things I've ever read about. One day a bunch of medical researchers were sitting around and having an informal discussion. One of them said that if the futures market was as bad at predicting the future as health experts were, there would be no futures market. That sparked the idea of developing a system that worked like the futures market to uncover the likelihood of different health care scenarios.

In the past, these "prediction markets" have out-performed opinion polls to predict elections and help the industry gauge which products will sell.

In the healthcare industry, they are using it to uncover where the next pandemic is most likely to surface. The way it works is 100 flu experts (ones with lots of real time on the ground knowledge) from around the world are set up with $100 trading accounts. They can place their bets on questions like "Will there be a human case of bird flu in the Western Hemisphere by next July?" (The answer is almost resoundingly no.) Whewwww!!!! The more experts who bet on an answer, the more likely it is to happen. The surer an expert is that something is going to happen, the more money they will be likely to bet.

Not so cool: Day 87 predictions for a Flu Pandemic

SallyDP · Active Poster Joined: 16 Mar 2007 Posts: 100

Ok, I actually don't know how to react to this! It is funny yet scary at the same time! But thanks for posting it!

Lena · Active Poster Joined: 21 Apr 2007 Posts: 100

I like the idea of 100 medical experts comparing their theories for the future. I'm not so sure about them betting on it though!

teammate · Active Poster Joined: 22 Apr 2007 Posts: 128

It is a very good story and we should not take it seriously as medical experts rarely bet on diseases.